With an unfriendly Fed, rising and excessive federal and corporate debt, and tepid corporate earnings, investors are overlooking a great deal to keep stocks trading near record highs. Then again, when investors are no longer sentient beings but machines and park-your-brains-at-the-door ETFs, economic and corporate fundamentals don’t matter, only sentiment and momentum.

Investors poured $426.1 billion into domestic ETFs over the past 12 months (through the end of February) including $44 billion in February alone (and $62.9 billion into global ETFs in the shortest month of the year), raising the total to $124 billion for the first two months of 2017. There is now roughly $2.8 trillion invested in U.S. ETFs (see the image below, which shows the year-over-year growth).

Just to be clear, what this ETF bubble means is that nobody ever has to buy an individual stock again or perform the fundamental research required to make that kind of investment decision because the ETFs will do it for them without doing that fundamental work. That explains how a no-growth company like Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) can trade at a 20x P/E or Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) can trade at a 44x P/E (because they are owned by dozens of ETFs).

Or the company I’m about to show you – which is owned by no fewer than 52 ETFs and is trading at a ridiculous 41.5x earnings.

Incidentally, it’s also headed straight to hell in a handbasket…

Heavy ETF Ownership Can’t Prop UAA Up Much Longer

Maybe it’s the contrarian in me, but whenever I see a company touted on the front page of Barron’s or another business magazine, I smell blood.

Especially when the company’s stock has fallen 55% in the past year and is still trading at a ridiculous 41.5x earnings. The last thing investors need is another retail turnaround story but that’s exactly what they have in Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UAA). The stock has collapsed from its 52-week high of $46.20 and even Wall Street analysts, which hate to put a sell rating on anything, are downgrading this once beloved name. Facing monster competitors like Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and Adidas (ADS Germany) (UAA has about $5 billion in annual sales compared to NKE’s $34 billion and ADS’s $21 billion), UAA is going to have a tough time getting its act together and shedding its reputation as the single worst performer in the S&P 500 over the last year. I’m betting things will get worse before they get better – they usually do and in the current retail carnage, they definitely will.

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