The US economy’s stall speed expansion in last year’s fourth quarter is on track to accelerate in Q1, according to a variety of estimates. There’s disagreement about the strength of the revival, but a diverse set of forecasts are in agreement that Q1 economic activity will strengthen in the “advance” estimate that the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish on Apr. 29.

Among the stronger forecasts: yesterday’s revised Q1 outlook from the widely followed nowcast via the Atlanta Fed. The bank’s GDP Now model is currently projecting a 2.5% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in output for the first three months of this year, based on the Feb. 25 update. If the forecast holds, the US macro trend will post a solid acceleration in growth over the tepid 0.7% rise in last year’s final quarter.

Even the comparatively pessimistic estimates at the moment see some improvement in the Q1 data, if only on the margins. Wells Fargo’s latest prediction(Feb. 19), for instance, is currently looking for a slightly stronger pace: 1.0%.

Economists overall are expecting a healthy revival in growth. This month’s survey data via The Wall Street Journal points to a 2.0% advance in Q1 GDP, based on the average estimate among analysts polled by the newspaper.

The Capital Spectator’s average econometric estimate is relatively soft in comparison with the crowd’s expectations, although here too the current outlook is pointing to a modestly stronger rate of expansion: 1.4%.

It’s still early for Q1 data, of course, and so there’s a long road ahead between now and the government’s preliminary estimate at the end of April. The path ahead could be bumpy, in part because of ongoing concerns about blowback from a wobbly global economy. “What we’re concerned about is China,” says Charles Collyns, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. “Could there be a break on China’s currency that could tip the global economy into recession?”

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