The preliminary numbers for the US economic profile in February are flashing a warning sign, according to Markit’s sentiment data for the manufacturing and services sectors. It’s premature to assume the worst just yet, in part because the nearly complete set of numbers for January still point to growth. Ditto for the Chicago Fed’s January reading of the trend. By contrast, there’s only a handful of data points available at the moment for February. But the early signals for this month suggest that forward momentum will continue to suffer. We’ll know more in the days ahead as new data arrives. Meanwhile, the macro trend appears headed for more deterioration. While we’re waiting for fresh figures, let’s get up to speed on where we stand at the moment for February.

The latest data point is the flash Services PMI, which dipped into contractionary territory this month—below the neutral 50 mark–for the first time since Oct. 2013. Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief economist, bluntly noted in the accompanying press release that “the PMI survey data show a significant risk of the US economy falling into contraction in the first quarter. The flash PMI for February shows business activity stagnating as growth slowed for a third successive month. Slumping business confidence and an increased downturn in order book backlogs suggest there’s worse to come.”

Markit’s Manufacturing PMI delivered a stronger reading for February, printing at 51.0. But the trend is weakening for this sector and the latest update reflects the weakest reading since Oct. 2012. “Every indicator from the flash PMI survey, from output, order books and exports to employment, inventories and prices, is flashing a warning light about the health of the manufacturing economy,” Williamson noted earlier this week.

Initial jobless claims are the main antidote to the gloomy PMI numbers for February at the moment. Last week’s update revealed that new filings for unemployment benefits dipped to a three-month low, suggesting that recession risk for the US is minimal. The Philly Fed’s ADS Index, a high-frequency measure of the US macro trend, is also trending positive, based on economic data published through Feb. 13. And the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow estimate sees a solid rebound for first-quarter growth, based on the bank’s Feb. 17 projection.