Iran’s recent volatility reflects US effort to undermine the nuclear accord as Iran is amid economic transition and increasingly looking toward the East.

At the end of December, a series of protests against economic policies erupted in Iran. As they spread, their scope expanded to include political opposition. But when President Trump tweeted his support for the protesters and criticism of the government, pro-government marchers filled the streets.

Yet, on January 3, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, announced the defeat of the “sedition” in the country.

Next, the Trump administration placed sanctions on five subsidiaries of the Shahid Bakeri Industrial Group – a defense group that is a key producer of Iran’s ballistic missiles and that is already under US sanctions.

What is going on in Iran?

US struggle for new sanctions and regime change

In 2015 the nuclear accord (JCPOA) offered Iran relief from US, UN and multilateral sanctions on energy, financial, shipping, automotive and other sectors. The primary sanctions were lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s certification that Iran had complied with the agreement. Yet, secondary sanctions on firms remained in place, along with sanctions applying to US companies, including banks.

Then Washington opted for a U-turn. Following the House of Representatives, the Senate unanimously extended the Iran Sanctions Act for a decade in late 2016. Despite the Obama sanctions relief, most Democrats reversed their positions.

When President Trump arrived in the White House, he began developing a far more muscular policy against Iran to benefit from Saudi economic and geopolitical support. Last May, he signed a $350 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, which has been followed by a push to counter Iran’s regional and strategic weapons programs.

In October, two months before the Iranian protests, the Trump administration designated for sanctions additional missile and IRGC-related entities, while threatening to cease implementing the JCPOA.