While wholesale sales rose modestly MoM, the continued stagnation in wholesale inventories (lowest since 2010) bodes poorly for Q2 GDP. At 1.36x, the wholesale inventories-to-sales remains near record highs, but Automotive inventories to sales soared to cycle highs at 1.83x (as Auto sales dropped 0.7% MoM but inventories rose 1.0% MoM).

The gap remains wide…

Leaving inventories-to-sales near record highs…

As Automotive inventories continue to build as sales collapse…

Either sales must massively surge or inventory destocking (and thus recession-creating production cuts) begins soon.