We began months ago, noting the 3 Amigos destined for their goals. Here’s a post from November 2017 explaining the macro fundamentals involved: Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro Amigo #1 (SPX vs. Gold): Either reach major theoretical resistance (it’s a ratio,
April 6, 2018
Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for the first half of FY2018/19 to 4.7-5.1%. Former South Korean President Park was sentenced to 24 years in prison. Malaysia Prime Minister Razak has called for early elections. Bahrain discovered its
Canada sees a healthy rise in jobs: 32.3K in March, above 20K expected. The unemployment rate remains at 5.8% as predicted with no change in the participation rate, at 65.%. There is some good news in the composition of the
Never get hung up on one payroll report, good or bad. The Establishment Survey series, seasonally-adjusted and statistically smoothed as much as humanly possible, is still incredibly noisy. It didn’t used to be this way, which is an important clue
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There
Talking Points: This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report out of the United States was not positive, as a headline print of +103k came-in far below the expectation of +188k. Average hourly earnings continued with consistency, printing at 2.7%, but this wasn’t
The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%. The divergence between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast Model widened again this week. GDPNow Latest Forecast: 2.3 Percent – April
“The market is reacting in a way which does not comport with the strength, the unbelievable strength in President Trump’s economy. I mean, everything in this economy is hitting on all cylinders because of President Trump’s economic policies. We’ve cut
I used to think that beating the market was the only thing that mattered when it comes to investment returns. Then, after a few bear markets I began to realize that beating the market was vastly overrated because beating the
Take a look at three trading ideas to prep you for the next trading session. Long Marathon Oil (MRO) Long McDonalds (MCD) Short Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK)
