The BLS reports March jobs as +103,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Revisions were negative.


The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down from +239,000 to +176,000, and the change for February was revised up from +313,000 to +326,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 50,000 less than previously reported.

Initial Reaction

Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 103,000. The household survey (Table A) shows employment fell by 37,000. Once again there are wild swings and divergences between the two surveys.

The Econoday consensus estimate was +175,000 jobs in a range of 112,000 to 225,000.

One has to wonder if last month’s whopping 326,000 establishment survey report was an outlier.

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +103,000 – Establishment Survey
  • Employment: -37,000 – Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -121,000 – Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -141,000 – Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: +338,000 – Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 to 4.1% – Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 8.0% – Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +163,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: -158,000 – Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +323,000 – Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.9– Household Survey
  • Employment Report Statement

    Payroll employment edges up by 103,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. Employment increased in manufacturing, health care, and mining.

    Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

    The above Unemployment Rate Chart is from the BLS. Click on the link for an interactive chart.

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