December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.24%) this morning are up +0.18% and European stocks are up +0.99% at a 1-3/4 month high after German business confidence unexpectedly rose for the first time in 7 months. European bank stocks and government bonds also rose on speculation the ECB will expand stimulus after ECB President Draghi last Friday said the ECB needs to accelerate inflation and may broaden its asset-purchase program. 10-year government bond yields from France, Italy and Spain all fell to record lows on speculation the ECB will soon begin to buy sovereign debt. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong +1.95%, China +2.55%, Taiwan +0.34%, Australia +1.08%, Singapore -0.14%, South Korea +0.98%, India +0.58%. China’s Shanghai stock Index soared to a 3-year high as the Asian markets reacted for the first time to the surprise interest rate cut by the PBOC that was done after the Asian markets closed last Friday. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Dec crude oil (CLF15 -0.55%) is down-0.41%. Dec gasoline (RBF15 -0.68%) is down -0.58%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.35%) is down -0.23%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.08%) is up +0.02%. Agriculture prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.09%) is down -0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) recovered from a 2-week low and is up +0.17% after the German IFO business confidence unexpectedly improved. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.38%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.09%) are down -4 ticks.

The German Nov IFO business climate unexpectedly rose +1.5 to 104.7, better than expectations of -0.2 to 103.0. The Nov IFO current assessment rose +1.6 to 110.0, better than expectations of -0.4 to 108.0. The Nov IFO expectations rose +1.6 to 99.7, stronger than expectations of +0.2 to 98.5.

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said that the ECB should wait for the effects of measures already taken before adding more stimulus measures as monetary policy works with a long delay.

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