Just as we saw with the stock market following Draghi’s December disappointment dead-cat-bounce, WTI Crude has collapsed back to post-Draghi lows, erasing all the WTF bounce from Friday. The driver – aside from the fact that there was no driver of the ramp – appears to be comments from Emirates Bank on the resilience of US shale (and the surprising lack of production drops for now).

US shale-oil producers could decide to stay in the game with prices currently hovering around $40/barrel, according to Edward Bell at Dubai-based bank Emirates NBD.

Market participants expected some shale producers to be pushed out as they struggled to compete in the low-price environment, and while US production is falling, it’s not been happening at a rapid rate. With prices well off their recent lows, shale producers could decide to weather the storm and try to keep output high. US production has dropped around 120K/day so far this year, but still remains above 9M barrels.

Well that didn’t last long…

Finally, given the total lies that were spewed about a March meeting of OPEC/NOPEC, it appears April is the new March…

OPEC and non-OPEC producers are likely to hold their next meeting on a plan to freeze output levels in a bid to support prices in mid-April in Doha, three OPEC sources said on Monday.

An earlier plan was to meet on March 20 in Russia, but sources familiar with the matter said last week this was unlikely to take place. 

Now what will see from stocks…

It’s different this time though right?