Once again the cyclical patterns in US macro data are re-emerging as extrapolated hopes fade into mean-reverting credit-impulse-hangover-driven realities. Despite all the hopes and dreams of escape velocity, cleanest-dirty-shirt-wearing economic enthusiasts, year-to-date performance of Citi’s US Macro Surprise index is at its lowest level since 2008.

The worst performing US Macro data since 2008…

Whether this is absolute weakness or relative weakness (versus yet more over-enthusiastic expectations) is unclear though, the Midterm election results and NFR Black Friday spending data may be a hint.

Charts: Bloomberg