Confirmation Process

I want to begin by reminding you of the process we need to follow to determine that a long term bottom has been struck:

From an Elliott Wave perspective, we look for several qualifications to determine a long term correction has completed, and a bull market has resumed.

First, we need to see the decline complete a full 5 wave structure for the c-wave of the correction. 

Second need to see this corrective structure complete into a target region, as calculation via Fibonacci mathematics. N

Third, we need to see a 5 wave rally off the bottoming region low.

Fourth, after the 5 wave rally has completed, we need to see a corrective 3 wave pullback into a target region as calculated by Fibonacci mathematics.

Fifth, to place us very strongly back into the bull market, the market must then rally over the high of the initial 5 wave structure off the bottom. This will suggest that the bull market has begun, at least from a high probability perspective.

Right now, neither silver, nor gold nor GDX have confirmed long term bottoms in place based upon this 5 step process. But, this past week, silver has placed itself in jeopardy of heading to lower lows in the setup it developed. So, let’s start with silver.

Silver

For weeks we have been looking towards the 16 level as the point silver could be seen as breaking out. However, silver came right up to the line, but could not muster the strength to push forward. This past week, we saw silver break below our support of 14.80, which clearly is not a positive development. 

However, what we also know about silver is that it is the most volatile of the metals and often likes to come on strong from behind. You see, silver is the Secretariat of the metals world. 

So, as the market developed more of its structure over the week, I noted that the 14.55 level is a 1.00 extension off the top and the seemingly last line of support that may hold which can support one more attempt to push through the 16 region for silver. That same level is also the 50DMA on my silver futures chart, which would provide support beyond the Fibonacci extension.