Talking Points:

Benchmark commodity prices have made little progress since setting prominent highs mid last week. Crude oil prices will look to the weekly API inventories report as well as the short-term outlook report from the EIA for their next lead. Meanwhile, gold prices may face a bit of selling pressure if upbeat remarks from Fed officials highlight the disparity between officials’ rate hike outlook and that of the markets.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  

Gold prices have stalled a bit after touching a four-month high last week. Negative RSI divergence warns that the pause may translate into a larger reversal lower as upside momentum fizzles. A reversal back belowthe 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1312.90 opens the door for another challenge of the 38.2% level at 1294.91. Alternatively, a breach of the 61.8% Fibat 1330.89 targets the 1353.15-57.50 area (76.4% Fib, September 8 high) next.

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Crude oil prices are consolidating gains after hitting the highest level since May 2015. From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 62.31 exposes the 50% level 64.32. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 59.83 paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% expansion at 58.30.

Chart created using TradingView