All this talk and turmoil and noise and movement and desire is outside of the veil; within the veil is silence and calm and rest. – Bayazid Al-Bistami

On the 19th of this month, two articles were published at the same time, one stating that oil could go to $26 and the other stating that oil is ready to trade to $80. Which one is it going to be, $26 or $80 and how is the average Joe going to be able to discern which one is a depiction of what lies ahead?  This is the problem with today’s mass media; in their quest to attract eyeballs, bombastic and often conflicting articles are published simultaneously. One almost feels that most of the major sites have only one agenda, quantity over quality.  The idea is to use emotions, Greed or Fear, to trigger a reaction. Whether the data supporting the hypothesis is valid or not appears to be irrelevant. Perhaps this is why more American drink coffee daily than invest in the markets; over 50% of the public is still sitting on the sidelines.

Psychology is probably the simplest, most misunderstood and most underutilized tool when it comes to trading. The first rule of mass psychology dictates that one put aside one’s emotions.  You have to cut the power of these useless forces. It is not easy, and it never becomes automatic. You have to fight it, but you know you are close to doing something right when you not overly confident about the decision you are going to make. The second factor is to get rid of the noise; use mass media only as a source of entertainment or to provide information on what you should not be doing.  

Having said, that, let’s attempt to shed some light on what is going on.  Let’s start off with the fundamentals — for the record, we do not place too much emphasis on fundamentals; fundamental data is presented in a standard format, so anyone with access to it can draw the same conclusion. Thus negating the edge it is supposed to give an investor.  However, if you combine that with mass psychology and/or technical analysis, the outcome improves considerably.