One day after the dollar slumped sharply on initial disappointment with the GOP tax plan, the greenback has rebounded ahead of a nonfarm payrolls report that is expected to show the US economy gained over 300,000 jobs in the post-hurricane rebound, and as investors reassessed the latest news on U.S. tax-cut plans. Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced, US equity futures were as usual in the green, while oil headed for an eight-month high on signs OPEC will agree to extend supply cuts.

In an otherwise quiet session, the biggest overnight news was President Nicolas Maduro announcing Venezuela will seek to restructure its global debt after the state oil company makes one more payment. While the risk of contagion is low, the emerging-market index of currencies declined for the first time this week. In early trading, the PDVSA dollar bonds maturing 2027 plunged at the start of trading, slumping 10 cents on the dollar to 20 cents in early London trading. As a result, EMFX weakened across the board with some analysts noting the Venezuela debt restructuring as a driver, though most weaknesses occurred after Turkey’s inflation report.

In global macro, markets are in their usual pre-NFP lull, with most G-10 currencies staying within yesterday’s ranges. The weakest quarter for Australian retail sales in seven years sent the Aussie lower and bonds climbing. The Aussie dollar dropped as much as 0.5 percent back below 77 U.S. cents and bond yields extended declines as traders pushed back bets on the timing for an interest-rate increase. The Bloomberg Dollar Index was steady in Asia, amid modest moves in most G-10 currencies, before edging higher with the start of the London session as fast-money names added dollar longs before U.S. jobs report.Treasury futures were stuck in tight ranges through Asian hours, on very muted volumes, just 37% of recent averages, with cash markets closed for a Japan holiday; as Bloomberg reports, TSYs came under pressure in London, widening vs Germany.

European stocks are little changed, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain, as investors weigh earnings results and the latest U.S. tax-cut plans. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gains less than 0.1%. Shares of automakers are among the biggest sector gainers, led by a 4% advance in Renault after France cut its stake in the company. A retreat in Austria’s Erste Group and French Societe Generale pulled banks lower after the Paris-based lender said revenue from the equities division tumbled 19% from a year earlier.

Asian stocks outside Japan, which was closed for a holiday, edged higher and were poised for a weekly gain on the back of technology stocks. MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan rose 0.1% to 556.9. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. led gains Friday as Apple’s forecast for holiday sales buoyed suppliers in Asia. Chinese stocks capped their biggest weekly decline in three months, in the wake of the Communist Party Congress and a bond market selloff. In Hong Kong, Cnooc and PetroChina advanced this week as oil extended gains from the highest close in more than two years. The Philippines stock benchmark declined from yesterday’s record-high close, which followed a two-day holiday. “The index’s rise has been too steep so this is a healthy correction,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc.

A quick look at China, where local stocks capped the biggest weekly decline since Aug. 11, led by brokerages and technology shares, in the wake of the Communist Party Congress and a bond market selloff.The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.3% at the close, extending retreat this week to 1.3%, while the ChiNext Index dropped 0.8%, taking the loss over last five sessions to 3.3%; that’s most since July 14. Curiously the drop happened even as the PBOC skipped reverse repos to offer 404 billion yuan of one-year MLF loans, taking total liquidity injections to over a trillion yuan this week.

Meanwhile, looking at the day ahead, October payrolls probably surged in October, according to sell-side consensus (full economy gained over 300,000 ) rebounding from a hurricane-depressed September, while wage growth is expected to continue. The shift in focus to data follows a drop in Treasury yields Thursday as President Donald Trump confirmed that Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is his pick to chair the central bank.

Oil extended gains from the highest close in more than 2 years on signs OPEC will agree to extend supply cuts when ministers meet in Vienna at the end of the month. Brent crude gained over half a percent to $61.05 per barrel. The benchmark hit $61.70 on Wednesday, its highest since July 2015. U.S. crude gained 0.6 percent to $54.90, almost 30 percent above its June lows. Iraq, the 2nd-biggest OPEC producer, backed extending the curbs for further 9 months, Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi says in Baghdad. While ministers from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait say this week longer cuts are needed, consensus on how long to prolong is yet to be decided. A decision this month on an extension is not certain, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak. “I think it’s a done deal, the only issue to be discussed is that, do they extend it for six months or nine months,” Fereidun Fesharaki, founder and chairman of energy industry consultant FGE, says in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Elsewhere in commodity markets, spot gold was steady at $1,276.81 an ounce, after touching its highest since Oct. 20 at$1,284.10 on Thursday. London nickel prices renewed their advance, putting the metal on course for a gain of nearly 10 percent this week and 27 percent year-to-date on expectations of bullish demand from the electric vehicle battery sector. 

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Markets await NFP with the Street looking for a strong bounce-back this month after hurricane-related disruptions last month
  • GBP struggles to regain much ground against its major despite an impressive services PMI release
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, ISM Non-Manufacturing, ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Kashkari
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