In the last few weeks, the value of the pound has seen notable fluctuations against the EUR and USD which, as any trader will appreciate, is something that can have significant bearings on your investments.

Here is a brief overview of the major events involved in these fluctuations and assess the cause behind the rises and falls. As well as this, we’ll consider what the current situation is and what future developments may be on the horizon.

Article 50

Having weathered stormy seas since the result of the UK referendum last June, the GBP understandably and expectedly dropped again against the greenback earlier this week as Theresa May was cleared by the Government to trigger Article 50 and begin formal processes to leave the European Union as soon as March 29th.

This came into play in addition to threats of a second Scottish referendum to be held by Spring 2019 from the SNP. This was bluntly refused by Theresa May yet left many nervously reconsidering their investment strategies and once more confidence to drop in the pound once more under suspicions that this may very well come to pass. The sterling fell more than 0.6% against the USD marking the lowest level since mid-January.

For many though, this wasn’t an unexpected turn of events. In the run up to this, there were several predictions this would be the case, as this post from Market Watch suggests. Craig Erlam a senior market analyst from OANDA commented at the time on how the pound was ‘coming under pressure’ with Theresa May’s ‘difficulty in passing the Brexit bill smoothly through the House of Lords’.

Dutch Elections

Moving forward though, only a few days after this, the pound was once again rising, thanks to the pending results of the Dutch election. This was due in part to whether or not right-wing candidate Geert Wilders was to be victorious. If so, the belief was that confidence in the currency would fall and also fuel ‘concerns that Marine Le Pen could win the French election in May’.