Last week, Japan reported GDP growth of 1.7% in Q1. That was much better than expected and led to all the usual extrapolations about how bright the future is in Japan now that QQE is working (and NIRP since that was started during the quarter). In this devalued economic world of central banking for the sake of central banking, context and common sense need not apply since all that matters is one quarter with a plus sign so that all prior quarters can be forgotten; no matter how many of them have piled up to this point.

Rising gross domestic product reverses a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2015 and means Japan has avoided another technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The faster than expected pace of growth suggests the Japanese economy is managing to shake off the effects of a slowdown in China and a stronger yen — at least for now — with domestic demand having more momentum than previously thought.

Economists focus entirely too much on “two consecutive quarters.” Because of that, they can plausibly make statements like this to the media:

Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan’s former vice finance minister, now a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University, said the first-quarter report card confirmed his bullish view.

“I was expecting a strong read because the economy is in recovery,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” This year, it’s quite likely growth will be around 1 percent so the recovery is going on fairly smoothly.”

They use words like “momentum” and “recovery” where any reasonable human would never dare. Even in a quarter where GDP expanded by 1.7% these descriptions just do not apply. For starters, of that 1.7% growth, 1.1% of it was due to an increase in consumer spending. Some economists have pointed out the extra day in February as one reason for that additional spending, but setting aside any calendar objections the real Japanese economy has to account for scale – meaning that one quarter’s potential gain doesn’t come close to closing the gap for all prior declines.

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