Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of July 3

       

July 3

       

PMI Manufacturing Index – June

52.1

52.1(p)

52.2

           

ISM (Mfg) – June

54.9%

54.9(p)

55.1

 

ISM Prices

60.0

60.5

             

Construction Spending – May

0.4%

-1.4

0.5

           

Auto Sales* – June

16.6M

16.7

16.6

 

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

                 

Factory Orders – May

-0.5%

-0.2

-0.6

 

Durable Goods Orders

-1.1

-1.1(p)

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.2

0.4

             

July 6

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K

244K

244

 

ADP Employment Report – July

175K

253

178

 

International Trade – May

-$47.0B

-47.6

-46.2

           

PMI Services Index

53.0

53.0(p)

53.0

 

ISM Services – June

56.4

56.9

             

Nonfarm Payrolls – June

180K

138

170

 

Private

175

147

164

 

Manufacturing

6

-1

   

Unemployment

4.3%

4.3

4.3

 

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

           

Week of July 10

       

July 10

       

Consumer Credit – May

$12.0B

8.2

             

July 11

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – June

104.5

104.5

   

JOLTS – May

5.95M

6.044

             

Wholesale Inventories – May

0.3%

0.3 (p)

             

July 13

       

Producer Producer Index – June

0.1%

0.0

   

Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services

0.2

-0.1

             

Treasury Budget – June

-$45.0B

-88.4

             

July 14

       

Consumer Price Index – June

0.1%

-0.1

   

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

             

Retail Sales – June

0.1%

-0.3

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.0

-0.3

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline

0.1

0.0

             

Industrial Production – June

0.2%

0.0

   

Capacity Utilization

76.7

76.6

   

Manufacturing

-0.2

-0.4

             

Business Inventories – May

0.2%

-0.2

   

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

97.1

95.1