Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     

`

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of June 5

       

June 5

       

Productivity – Q1 (r)

-0.1%

-0.6

-0.2

 

Unit Labor Costs

2.5

3.0

2.6

           

Factory Orders – April

-0.2%

0.2

-0.2

           

PMI Services Index

54.0

54.0

54.0

 

ISM Services – May

57.0

57.5

57.0

           

June 6

       

JOLTS – April

5.725M

5.743

5.725

           

June 7

       

Consumer Credit – April

$17.0B

16.4

17.0

           

June 8

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K

248

241

           

June 9

       

Wholesale Inventories – April

-0.3

-0.3%

-0.3

           

Week of June 12

       

June 12

       

Treasury Budget – May

-$103.0B

182.4

             

June 13

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – May

105.0

104.5

             

Producer Price Index – May

0.1%

0.5

   

PPI Core

0.2

0.4

             

June 14

       

Consumer Price Index – May

0.0%

0.2

   

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

             

Retail Sales – May

0.2%

0.4

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.3

0.3

             

Business Inventories – April

-0.1%

0.2

             

June 15

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

Philadelphia Fed Survey Index

22.0

38.8

   

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

5.0

-1.0

             

Export Prices –  May

0.2%

0.5

   

Import Prices

0.1

0.2

             

Industrial Production – May

0.1%

1.0

   

Capacity Utilization

76.7

76.7

             

NAHB Index – June

70

70

             

June 16

       

Housing Starts – May

1.225M

1.172

   

Building Permits

1.250

1.229

             

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – June (p)

97.5

97.1