Only the most intellectually dishonest can claim that last night’s Chinese economic data deluge was anything but miserable. As we showed last night, everything missed:

  • Industrial Production +5.9% (MISS vs +6.0% YoY expectations)
  • Retail Sales +11.1% (MISS vs +11.3% YoY expectations)
  • Fixed Asset Investment +10.0% (MISS vs +10.2% YoY expectations),
  • Q4 GDP growth +6.8% (MISS vs +6.9% YoY expectations).
  • Even as the real full year GDP of 6.9% was in line, it was still the lowest since 1990…

    … while the nominal Q4 GDP was well below 6% when excluding the 0.9% deflator, suggesting unadjusted Chinese growth just had its worst quarter in the 21st century.

    MarketNews’ take confirmed as much: “a closer look under the hood shows a more troubling picture. Industrial output growth in December slid back to below 6% after a surprise acceleration in November, fixed-asset investment growth continued its slow grind lower, coming in at 10% for the Jan-Dec period, the weakest pace since 2000. The overhang of unsold real estate persists and although sales are improving in first-tier cities, the government’s own data show that floor space under construction rose just 1.3% in 2015. While that’s an improvement from a record low of -3.6% in the Jan-Aug y/y period, the lack of growth in investment will continue to be a significant drag on the economy this year given the sector’s importance to other industries including steel, cement and household goods.”

    Official data on the source of funding for fixed-asset investment show that funds from the state budget rose 15.6% in 2015, slowing from 21.4% for the Jan-Nov 2015 period, and little higher than the 14.1% for full-year 2014, which indicates some moderation at the end of the year. Lending weakened further as a source of investment funding, dropping 5.8% for the full year, compared with a decline of 4.3% in the first 11 months. This doesn’t bode well for a significant pickup in investment growth in 2016.

    Real average disposable income growth weakened to 7.4% y/y last year from 8% in the previous year, hardly a boost for consumption. So there are few reasons to take heart from the headline 2015 GDP number even though it was in line with Premier Li Keqiang’s target.

    Other estimates of China’s GDP were even worse, with Oxford Economics calculating only 6.3% growth in 2015 and 6.1% y/y in Q4, while Capital Economics estimated China grew only 4.5% in Q4.

    So if bad news was bad news, both commodities (read oil) and US equity futures should be tumbling right now… but just the opposite is happening and in fact both Brent and WTI have already jumped over $30 this morning.

    This happens even as the IEA said this morning that global oil markets could “drown in oversupply,” sending prices even lower as demand growth slows and Iran revives exports with the end of sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency.

    The IEA trimmed 2016 estimates for global oil demand as China’s economic expansion weakens and raised forecasts for supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. While non-OPEC supply is set to drop 600,000 barrels a day in 2016, Iran’s comeback could fill that gap by the middle of the year. As a result, world markets may be left with a surplus of 1.5 million barrels a day in the first half.

    So why are both commodities, global stocks and futures soaring?

    Simple: the following Bloomberg headline summarizes it: “Brent Rallies More Than $1 as China GDP Spurs Stimulus Bets,” and where Brent goes, so goes risk, and the S&P.

    It wasn’t just speculation: confirming that China is getting more actively involved in “risk management” was the following headline moments ago, showing that the PBOC injected over 400 billion yuan into Chinese banks so far this week.

  • CHINA PBOC: CNY82 BLN IN 1Y MLF; CNY328 BLN IN 3-MONTH MLF
  • CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY410 BLN VIA MLF TO BANKS
  • And then, the National Team arrived: the Shanghai Composite Index rallied 3.2 percent, the most since November, with Reorient Financial Markets Ltd. saying government-led funds may have entered to bolster the market.

    Which means one thing: bad news is good news again, if only for a few days or until the previously noted “oversold” bounce takes place. In fact the only underperforming asset today, for the second day in a row, were Italian banks and the FTSE MIB index in general, as a result of many financials being halted from trading after reports the ECB are looking to investigate banks non-performing loans.

    Here is a quick snapshot of where global risk indexes could be found this morning.

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.7% to 1907
  • Stoxx 600 up 1.9% to 335
  • FTSE 100 up 1.7% to 5879
  • DAX up 1.8% to 9694
  • German 10Yr yield up 1bp to 0.55%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.57%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.73%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.9% to 120
  • Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 17048
  • Hang Seng up 2.1% to 19636
  • Shanghai Composite up 3.2% to 3008
  • US 10-yr yield up 2bps to 2.06%
  • Dollar Index up 0.21% to 99.17
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.3% to $29.80
  • Brent Futures up 3.9% to $29.65
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,087
  • Silver spot up 0.7% to $14.05
  • Here is how the realization that China’s terrible economic data is really great for risk assets, starting in Asia, where equity markets traded mostly higher in what was a volatile session following the release of key data from China which saw 2015 GDP at its slowest annual growth in 25 years. Shanghai Comp. (+3.2%), rose back above the 3,000 level after being initially weighed by the miss on GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures. However, sentiment then reversed as the weak data stoked expectations for further easing measures, while the PBoC also offered funds via medium term lending facilities in tenors of 3-months and 1-year, with the latter being offered for the 1st time in history. This comes after some turmoil seen yesterday, were the PBoC implemented a reserve requirement ratio to some banks involved in the CNH market.

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