Finally a move in EUR/USD? The pair is making a break. Is it for real?

Just earlier today we talked about the narrowing triangle that closes on EUR/USD and it is finally happening. The timing is peculiar: after a better than expected US figure, the greenback is actually falling across the board.

ADP NFP came out 10K better than expected and with a 10K upwards revision. This was probably not enough: the break was brewing and the naturally bid euro (trade balance surplus) won over the speculation of further easing by the ECB.

The result is on the chart. EUR/USD reached a high of 1.0975 before slipping a bit to the downside, yet it is well over the highs seen in recent days. The round level of 1.10 is a natural point of resistance, followed by 1.1070. Support awaits at 1.0950, with real support only at 1.0780.

We still have another important release today: the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. It serves as a significant indicator for the NFP.

More: EUR/USD: Flat Waiting For A Signal, GBP/USD: Inverted H&S – RBS