Every attempt of the 30-Year long bond to break out of a decades-long downtrend fails. At the end of October, the long bond yield was 2.96%. Six days into November, it’s back at 2.80%. Meanwhile, short-term rates continue to rise. We are a recession away from a new record low yield on the long bond.

Despite all the economic cheerleading about the allegedly strengthening economy, I see things differently. Job growth is shrinking. Average the last two months to smooth out the hurricanes and you get growth job growth of 114,000. For now, it’s still positive.

Household formation is the weakest since 2010.

Hooray, autos rebounded. However, 100% of that rebound is due to hurricane replacement. It won’t last.

Rental vacancies are rising. What will that do to new apartment construction?

What growth we have is due to a diminishing savings rate. That’s another hurricane aspect that won’t last.

Construction spending shows serious signs of rolling over.

What Do You Believe?

The stock market and the 30-Year long bond yield are at odds. I believe the long bond. If the economy was truly strengthening, the yield on the long bond would not be acting like it is.

We are one recession away from a new record low yield on the long bond, and it’s coming.