The Fed raised rates yesterday, is it necessary for them to do that? Humbly, the answer will come in time.

Below looks at the inflation indicator and how it is testing a key price level:

This inflation indicator (TIP/TLT) has been heading lower overall lower, inside of falling channel (1), for the past 5-years. It hit the top of the channel at the start of this year and has been heading south most of the time.

The inflation indicator is now testing this year’s lows for the third time at (2). If support would give way, it would suggest a softening in this theme.

If support would break at (2), could this indicator be questioning the idea of the need to raise interest rates? Could be….Stay tuned as we will continue to update the message coming from this indicator in weeks and months to come.