US Census says manufacturing new orders improved. Our analysis agrees – but there are significant “buts”. The rolling averages improved.
Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales
According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was defense and civilian aircraft that was the tailwind. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely on the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages which was improved..
Note that when one inflation adjusts – and removes aircraft, there is a decline in manufacturing.
Backlog continues to decline – which should be a major concern.
US Census Headline:
The seasonally adjusted manufacturing new orders is up 1.2 % month-over-month, and up 5.5 % year-to-date.
Market expected (from Bloomberg / Econoday) month-over-month growth of 0.9 % to 3.9 % (consensus +1.1 %).
Manufacturing unfilled orders down 0.4 % month-over-month, and down 2.0 % year-over-year.
Econintersect Analysis:
Unadjusted manufacturing new orders growth accelerated 3.3 % month-over-month, and up 5.5 % year-over-year.
Unadjusted manufacturing new orders (but inflation adjusted) up 2.2 % year-over-year.
Three month rolling new order rolling averages was up 1.7% month-over-month, and is up 3.0 % year-over-year.
Unadjusted manufacturing unfilled orders growth decelerated 0.3 % month-over-month, and down 2.0 % year-over-year
As a comparison to the inflation adjusted new orders data, the manufacturing subindex of the Federal Reserves Industrial Production growth was up 0.2 % month-over-month, and up 0.5 % year-over-year.
Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Value of New Orders – All (red line, left axis), All except Defense (green line, left axis), All with Unfilled Orders (orange line, left axis), and all except transport (blue line, right axis)
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