Japanese exports boomed in November 2017, rising +16.2% versus a year earlier and beating consensus expectations of +14.7%. It was the fifth straight month of double-digit growth and the strongest since August. Last month, growth of +14.0% had undershot expectations of +15.7%. Imports in November grew slightly less than expected at +17.2% versus the consensus of +18.0%.

The trade surplus of 113.4 billion yen ($1 billion) contrasted with expectation of a 40 billion yen ($0.4 billion) deficit. According to Bloomberg, “Japan’s exports grew for a 12th straight month in November, topping economists’ expectations, as external demand continued to fuel the nation’s longest stretch of economic growth since the 1990s.”

A yearlong recovery in exports has kicked Japan into higher gear, fueling record profits and rising capital spending during the longest economic expansion since the mid-1990s. Confidence among the nation’s large manufacturers has reached the highest level in a decade, while sentiment is rising even among smaller companies. The wage growth needed to drive a self-sustaining recovery remains elusive, though, even as the labor shortage intensifies, prompting the government to plan to offer tax benefits to encourage higher pay.

“We can expect exports will remain strong enough to lead Japan’s economy, with solid demand from U.S. and China,” said Norio Miyagawa, a senior economist at Mizuho Securities Co., who cited global demand for semiconductors and IT-related goods. “Without any sign of weakening in exports, Japan’s economy will probably keep recovering gradually,” Miyagawa said. “The BOJ must be gaining confidence in the economy with today’s export data.”

The value of exports to Japan’s largest trading partner, China, surged by 25.1% In November to a record 1.38 trillion yen ($12.24 billion). Strong growth was reported in equipment to manufacture liquid crystal displays (LCD). Exports to Asia as a whole, which account for more than half of Japan’s total, also notched up a monthly record of 3.89 trillion ($34.5 billion), 20.4% higher than November 2016. The growth in exports to the US also rebounded, rising 13.0% versus 7.1% in October, while exports to the EU rose 13.3%. Hardly what a trade deficit-obsessed president Trump wants to see.

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