Just when it seems one side has control that control gets taken away. You get perfect action from the bulls. They break up through resistance only to have things reverse the very next day. The bears start to make a move for themselves. Just yesterday we tested below 2040 horizontal support, and then tested almost to the point at 2023 (2025 print), which is the 200-day exponential moving average. By the time the day ended we not only held 2023, but closed back above 2040. Both sides get very close to doing something special, but then it simply reverses either that very same day or the next day. No real reason behind this, but that’s what occurs. So let’s explore maybe why neither side is getting any real love. The bears would have to think things are going their way. We still have those very-nasty, monthly negative divergences on all the key index charts.

We also have economic news which continues to deteriorate. Add in the S&P 500 trading near 24 on its P/E, while earnings are in decline. Finally, we have the fed telling us rates are about to go higher. Markets normally hate this type of news. So what do the bulls have on their side? Nothing, to be blunt. Earnings are definitely in decline, and now they may be losing the fed for the first time in many years. It’s not a lock yet, and maybe the bulls are holding on in the hope that she’ll change her tune as the weeks move along, but other than that hope, things are not going their way. That said, there is still nothing bearish occurring in an environment that’s begging for lower prices. Go figure!

Just take a look at this week. How many times we tested key levels of resistance and support. The bears took out 2040, or horizontal support, and then made that mad dash to the 200-day exponential moving average. Long tail occurred the moment it got there. No rhyme or reason for that save. The bears have things going their way. Just kill the bulls. Stomp on them. Your opportunity is right there in front of you. Not to be. The bulls come in, and with no resistance by the bears whatsoever, they move things right back up. They close it over 2040, so now they are focusing on 2060 or the 20-day exponential moving average. They get there today. All looks good. The move is about to be made. Not to be. Rejected. Not killed, but rejected.