The first results are in and according to IPSOS exit polls, Macron leads with 23.7% of the vote, Le Pen is second with 21.7%, with Fillon and Mellenchon tied for third at 19.5%. However, according to official results, from the French interior ministry, Le Pen is leading with 24.2% of the vote, while Macron has 21.4%

France, Ipsos exit poll:

Macron (EM-*): 23.7%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 21.7%
Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 19.5%#Avote #RadioLondres pic.twitter.com/95Z6rRKYsK

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 23, 2017

Meanwhile, according to French official data:

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While we urge taking early polls with a big grain of salt, according to a Harris poll, Macron is in the lead with 24.5% of the vote, follow by Melenchon and Le Pen in second place with 20% of the vote.

France, Harris poll:

Macron (EM-*): 24.5%
Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 20%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 20%
Fillon (LR-EPP): 18%#Avote

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 23, 2017

A separate poll from La Unne shows Macron leading with 26% with Le Pen in second at 23%.

France, La Unne:

Macron (EM-*): 26%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 23%
Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 21%
Fillon (LR-EPP): 17%#Avote

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 23, 2017

Additionally, Harris estimates that the turnout in the election will be roughly 80%, while Ifop predicts a 77% turnout.

That said, as Reuters cautions, in 2012, some media outlets leaked estimations before the 8 p.m. embargo time. This time, analysts warn any figures on social media before 8 p.m. should be treated with extreme caution as likely based on incomplete surveys that don’t meet the gold standard.

Some have warned that if the race is extremely close, the polling companies won’t be able to call it and we’ll have to wait until the complete count of votes by the Interior Ministry expected Monday morning.