The September natural gas contract pulled back just less than a percent today as traders bet that very intense across much of the country next week was likely to break in the long-range. 

Weather was at the front of traders’ minds as the September contract logged by far the largest loss on the day. 

Even so, the September/October U/V spread barely pulled back on the day relative to its recent gains. 

The downside today was far from a surprise; in our Early Morning Text Message we warned subscribers this morning that risk was to the downside and resistance should hold as overnight models moved to our expectations. Sure enough, we did test the $2.98-$3 resistance level and reversed off it again today. 

Our Morning Update also highlighted some of these cooler risks that would pressure prices at the front of the strip a bit more, and we expected them to linger into the 12z afternoon models too. 

However, intraday this morning we noticed a bit more support from the natural gas strip, leading us to warn clients that the $2.95 support level would likely not be tested today despite the AM selling. Sure enough, prices set a low just above it at $2.953. 

The role of medium-range heat in propping up the front of the strip has been quite apparent since late last week. Our Morning Update showed just how anomalous the U/V move through yesterday was.