The National Association of Realtors is confused. The trade group for real estate professionals and salespeople just reported a significant drop in the level of resales for January 2018. After peaking at an annual pace of 5.72 million (revised) in November, existing home sales declined to 5.56 million (revised) in December and now just 5.38 million last month. That’s the lowest level since September 2017, more like mid-2016 than even close to a healthy trend.

In their press release, the NAR makes no mention of Harvey nor Irma. Despite the clear association, the artificial boost in those two months following the storms, there isn’t an acknowledgement as to how the housing market was noticeably weak for several months before the hurricanes struck. January 2018’s estimate is almost perfectly in line with that prior trend.

The 6-month average for resales shows better the overall state of the real estate market. It’s not horrible by any stretch, but it’s also not growing, either. This is the primary problem because by all outward projections it should be. Not only should the level be accelerating, there would also be new record high sales volume with each monthly gain.

This market has stalled, and the realtors group can’t figure why; except to acknowledge what is perfectly obvious from their own data.

The utter lack of sufficient housing supply and its influence on higher home prices muted overall sales activity in much of the U.S. last month…It’s very clear that too many markets right now are becoming less affordable and desperately need more new listings to calm the speedy price growth.

Huh? There are buyers who are motivated, even desperate, to purchase, yet no one wants to sell to them even though prices are “speedy?” Something is clearly missing here, though the NAR’s chief economists can’t seem to figure what it might be.