Oil markets were roiled, sending gasoline prices surging on Monday after Tropical Storm Harvey wreaked havoc along the Gulf Coast over the weekend, crippling Houston and its port, and knocking out numerous refineries as well as some crude production. As noted on Sunday, gasoline prices hit two-year highs as massive floods caused by the storm forced refineries in the area to close. Meanwhile crude futures fell as the refinery shutdowns could reduce demand for US crude production. As a reminder, Texas is home to 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity, and Louisiana has 3.3 million bpd. Over 2 million bpd of refining capacity was estimated to be offline as a result of the storm.

While the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Harvey was moving away from the coast, it was expected to linger close to the shore through Tuesday, and that floods would spread from Texas eastward to Louisiana.

As Reuters reports, US traders were seeking oil product cargoes from North Asia with transatlantic exports of motor fuel out of Europe expected to surge. “Global refining margins are going to stay very strong,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix. “If (U.S.) refineries shut down for more than a week, Asia will need to run at a higher level, because there’s no spare capacity in Europe.”

At the same time, about 22%, or 379,000 bpd, of Gulf production was idled due to the storm as of Sunday afternoon, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said. There may also be around 300,000 bpd of onshore U.S. production shut in, trading sources said.

In a note released this morning, Goldman’s Damien Courvalin calculated the estimate near-term impact from the “devastating” fallout from Harvey. As Courvalin writes, data available so far point to sizably larger refining than production disruptions: as of Sunday, August 27, nearly 3 mb/d of refinery capacity was offline (16.5% of the 18.2 mb/d US capacity) vs. c.1 mb/d of crude production (11% of 9.3 mb/d current production) and 2 Bcf/d of gas production (3% of 72 Bcf/d current production).