“Outrageous Prediction” Definition

Saxo Bank points out their “Outrageous Predictions for 2018 “are not their actual forecasts. Rather, they are a list of supposed “1% likelihood” events that Saxo really feels should be considered as 10% likely or higher.

In other words, they bring together a list of things that may happen, in an effort to get you to think.

Overview

Our suspicion is that the complacency and low volatility in 2017 will not repeat and may indeed have stored energy for a spectacular and outrageous 2018. Thus, a number of our predictions point squarely at the risk that this accumulation of excess complacency may have blown a pent-up bubble of volatility.

Besides our prediction of an ugly end to the complacency bubble, we place our European focus on the increasingly stark political faultline between “Austro-Hungarian Europe” and its feasible allies, and the traditional EU core.

In China, we look at the potential for enormous gains in consumption-linked equities as China transitions from an investment to a consumption-focused growth model.

We are outrageously bullish on sub-Saharan Africa and equally bearish on central banks, who risk having their independence taken away next year.

It’s safe to say that if any of our predictions see the light of day in 2018, the world will feel like a new place this time next year.

Short Synopsis