Shocking Fact In Today’s Job Report: Employment Stalls

Initial Reaction

Today’s employment report shows a robust increase of 227,000 jobs. The good news stops there. The rest of the report was horrific.

Last month the BLS revised November employment to 204,000 from 178,000. This month the BLS revised November from 204,000 to 164,000. In the past two months the BLS revised October lower each month, from 161,000 to 142,000 to 135,000. The BLS revised October a third time. October now sits at 124,000. This month the BLS revised September up from 208,000 to 249,000.

The big news is in employment where the three-month trend worsened.

In the last three months, employment has only risen by a grand total of 33,000. Employment in January declined by 30,000. For the entire year, employment rose by only 1,548,000. The average increase from a year ago is only 129,000 per month.

These trends have now gone on long enough they should not be ignored. But they are.

Instead, media is gaga over the beat-the-street headline number of +227,000 jobs.

employment-stalls

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +227,000 – Establishment Survey

Employment: -30,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: +106,000 – Household Survey

Involuntary Part-Time Work: +242,000 – Household Survey

Voluntary Part-Time Work: +236,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.8% – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: +0.2 to 9.4% – Household Survey

Civilian Non-institutional Population: -660,000

Civilian Labor Force: +76,000 – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: +264,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: +0.2 to 62.9 – Household Survey

Employment Report Statement

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities.