Technically Speaking: Is It 1999? 2007? Or Both?

In last week’s Technical Update, I discussed the potential for the S&P 500 to hit 2700 by Christmas. To wit:

“The current momentum behind the market advance is clearly bullish, and with the ‘smell of tax reform’ in the air, there is little to derail the bulls before year-end.

However, in the meantime, there seems to be nothing stopping the market from going higher. As stated in the title, the current push higher puts 2700 in sight by the time Santa fills the ‘stockings hung by the chimney with care.’”

With the markets within striking distance of that target, the run to Nasdaq 7000, Dow 25000 and S&P 2700 are all but guaranteed at this juncture. More interestingly, all three will be ticking off milestone gains at some of the fastest paces in market history. In fact, the Dow has posted three all-time records just this year:

70 new highs,

A 5000-point advance in a single year, and;

12-straight months of gains.

Just as a reminder of previous market bubbles, here is what they looked like.

As I discussed with Danielle Dimartino-Booth this morning. Not only is the current rally reminiscent of 1999, but to 2007 as well. In fact, the current bubble, as she states, is a combination of both.

As Danielle and I discussed, it seems eerily familiar.

In 1999:

Fed was hiking rates as worries about inflationary pressures were present.

Economic growth was improving

Interest and inflation rates were rising

Earnings were rising through the use of “new metrics,” share buybacks and an M&A spree. (Who can forget the market greats of Enron, Worldcom & Global Crossing)

Margin-debt / leverage was at the highest level on record.

Stock market was beginning to go parabolic as exuberance exploded in a “can’t lose market.”

Speculative asset of choice: Dot.com stocks

In 2007:

Fed was hiking rates as worries about inflationary pressures were present.

Economic growth was improving

Interest and inflation rates were rising

Debt and leverage provided a massive “buying” binge in real estate creating a “wealth effect” for consumers and high-valuations were justified because of the “Goldilocks economy.”

Margin-debt / leverage was at the highest level on record.

Stock market was beginning to go parabolic as exuberance exploded in a “can’t lose market.”

Speculative asset of choice: Real Estate