With the US Federal Reserve set to meet Tuesday and Wednesday, and interest rates expected to rise as a result, what will the rate hike path look like in 2018? To Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Economist Ethan Harris, understanding the Fed and their future actions requires taking a long view that goes beyond one rate hike. Going back to 2016 he notes an increasingly hawkish central bank not just by the words they use, but by their actions. With the markets basically nonplused to rate hikes of late, he expects central bankers to be emboldened in 2018 and is keeping his eye on the yield curve to benchmark the action.

After strong jobs report, rate hike likely — and watch for a lack of market reaction as Fed “reloads”

Last week’s November jobs report, revealing 228,000 new jobs were created, might have solidified the Fed’s plan to hike interest rates at meetings this week. If they do announce at Janet Yellen’s last meeting to notch up short term interest rates, it will be the third time in 2017 and the fifth time since December 2015. They will not only be attempting to put a damper on an economy before it significantly overheats, but they will be “goes beyond one rate hike” their own toolkit at the same time.

Harris notes that the objective in rate hikes is not only to subtly cool the economy. “Imposing pain in the markets is not only necessary for achieving near-term growth and inflation objectives, it is also essential if the Fed hopes to “reload” its policy weapons,” he wrote in a December 11 report titled “If at first you don’t succeed…”

Saying that “there is no such thing as a painless Fed hiking cycle,” he notes that the central bank is doing more than just “creating a modest restraint on growth.” They are preparing themselves in case they need to fire economic bullets to boost the economy in the near future should markets experience difficulty.