For generations, it was always a good bet to invest in a place Americans call home. Housing had almost always increased in value, and you received a multiple of whatever you invested into it in your total return.

Until 2008 that is.

That’s when home prices tanked and our economy entered a recession, leaving people like you and me holding the proverbial paper bag when it comes to overpriced and overleveraged mortgages.

Since then, the root cause of the housing bubble has remained in place — easy-money policies by the Federal Reserve to fuel lending. It has led to another housing bubble.

One that is set to burst sooner than most are anticipating.

Since 2009, the Fed has pinned interest rates near zero in an attempt to prop up our aging, lackluster economy.

With a sub-2% GDP growth rate, it’s hard to believe that this has been a success.

But the easy-money policies have propped up aspects of the market, just not in the pockets of the everyday American. Instead, it has bloated the pockets of Wall Street and investors.

Had someone told you in 2006, 2007 or even most of 2008 to sell your home, you likely would have ignored them. Not many people on Main Street noticed the lending practices going on behind the scenes and understood the extent of the bubble that was in place.

But hindsight is always 20/20.

The problem now is spotting similar bubbles going forward.

I’ll be the first to say that timing the week, month or even year that a bubble will pop is extremely difficult. But that doesn’t mean you can’t notice when that day is near, and for housing it may be just around the corner.

The Truth About the Housing Bubble

Before I go into the details, take a look at this chart:

Chart1

This chart compares existing home sales (in red) to the median sales price of those homes (in blue). As you can see, there is a substantial divergence as we approach 2015. Prices have climbed about 50% since 2000 and rebounded strongly from the bottom in 2010 to 2011. But existing home sales — the amount of homes actually sold — have lagged and are up just 5% since 2000.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email