Success in the markets requires thinking in possibilities. A great trader understands the permanent information deficit he’s faced with and why it makes market prediction impossible. All he can do is plan for a range of reasonable outcomes and adjust his strategy as new information presents itself.  

In the latest issue of our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR), we discussed the reasons for the rise of populism across the Western world and how it’s currently impacting the Soros-style false trend in European equities.

To review, a Soros-style false trend develops when a narrative is founded on untrue assumptions, and yet is so compelling, that price moves in its favor anyway. The positive price action further enhances belief in the narrative and creates a positive feedback loop between market, fundamentals, and narrative strength. This loop continues driving price further away from the truth, creating more instability. Eventually this loop breaks when belief in the narrative falters and price corrects.

Just as general market prediction is a fool’s errand, so is attempting to predict the end of a false trend. But what we can do is track key events that may poke a hole in the recurring feedback loop. These events are narrative “tests” where should the market pass, the trend will grow stronger, should it fail, the trend may reverse.

The upcoming test for the European equity rally is the French elections. The outcome of these elections will either strengthen the current European recovery narrative and send prices higher, or dash investors’ beliefs and cause prices to correct.

The reason French elections are key to the current narrative is because of the possibility of populist leaders gaining power — in particular Marine Le Pen. Le Pen is the leader of the right wing National Front, an anti-euro, anti-immigration party. One of the main pillars she’s running on is exiting the EU. If France (Europe’s 3rd largest economy) manages to leave, the rest of the union will fall apart. This will quickly negate the short-term reprieve in economic numbers Europe is currently experiencing. The equity rally will quickly reverse as investors abandon the European recovery narrative.