On Tuesday, the BEA released the second estimate of 4Q GDP. While the 1.9% headline number was uninspiring, the 6.6% decline in exports was the primary cause. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3%, helped by a very impressive 11.5% rise in durable goods purchases. A 9% uptick in residential building along with a 1.9 boost in equipment investment contributed to overall investment increasing 9%. As this following graph shows, the huge Q/Q drop in exports more than offset the positive contributions from personal spending and investment:

 Also, note that an export decline of this magnitude only occurred in 3 other quarters over the last 5 years.

 The BEA also released personal income numbers this week. The chained disposable income and personal consumption expenditures both declined.However, this is only 1 month of data in an otherwise bullish data series. And the 1-month contraction stands in stark contrast with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence number rising to a 15-year high. 

 Durable goods increased 1.8%, but transport orders were the sole reason for the increase. The ex-transport number was -.2. But on the plus side, non-defense capital goods orders rose an impressive 3.6%, which continues this data series’ recent uptick in activity:

However, the durable goods data series continues its move sideways between the 220 and 240 million level, where it’s been for the last 4 years:

Finally, ISM released their manufacturing and service numbers this month. The manufacturing number increased 1.7 to 57.7; new orders rose 4.7 while production increased 1.5.Prices, however, are a still elevated 68. The service sector headline number increased 1.1 to 57.6 with both new orders and employment growing.Both data series contain a positive anecdotal comments section.The combined reading of both numbers is for continued growth and perhaps some acceleration in business activity in the next few months.