US housing news was mixed. While new home sales decreased 9.2% M/M and 5.2% Y/Y, existing home sales (which is a far larger market) increased .4% M/M. Let’s compare the data:

The chart converts the data to base 100 for comparison purposes. New homes sales moved sideways last year, but made post-recession highs within the last 12 months and came close to that level a second time last year. Existing home sales hit a post-recession high in the 2H15 then dropped at the end of the year. This month’s number returns existing sales to levels near last year’s high. Overall, the housing data is still encouraging. While new homes sales dropped, the data series is volatile and there is no reason to think this is anything other than statistical noise. And existing home sales are near post-recession peaks.

Consumer confidence decreased 5.6 points. However, the bigger potential issue is the decline in future expectations:

The gold line decreased for most of last year which could partially explain the somewhat weaker 4Q15 PCE number. The decline is hardly fatal, but is something to keep an eye on.     

Durable Goods orders increased sharply, rising 4.9%. Even without the volatile transportation component, the figure increased 1.8%. The large increase is most likely the result of short-term pent-up demand. And, this data series continue to move sideways, despite the 1-month increase:

However, an increase is certainly better than a decrease, especially with the weak state of industrial production over the last year. 

And finally on Friday, the BEA released their second estimate of 4Q15 GDP, raising their top-line estimate .3% to 1%. This table from Doug Short shows the percentage contributions from the various components:

Notice the importance of PCEs to the last four quarters; these expenditures accounted for most or all the top-line growth figure. In contrast, investment and exports have been a net drag over the last four quarters, with investment slowing growth in 2H15 and exports dragging growth down for most of last year. Finally, state and local governments have contributed significantly more to growth than federal spending over the last year.