US Session Bullet Report

The D-day is here and the long awaited FOMC decision will take place tonight at 18:00 GMT followed by Janet Yellen’s Press Conference half an hour later. While US economic data might justify a rate hike (it will be the first one after June 2008) market consensus stands at 60% of not hiking rates tonight. Emerging Market volatility (mainly China) and low inflation due to such low oil and metal prices are arguing against hiking rates, while unemployment of 5.1% and a GDP of 3.7% are reasons to hike.

Hike or no hike, what traders will focus on is what Ms. Yellen will actually say. Chances are between a small rate hike, but reassuring the markets that any further hikes will be gradual, and a no hike but a hawkish stance that will leave the window open for taking action in October or December.

The Fed needs to keep its credibility intact, especially with Ms. Yellen being so vocal on a hike in 2015. If the FED leaves it too late, there is a danger of having to play catch up, and this could only cause more problems, especially to consumer spending and business confidence at a later date.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to what the communication after the hike will be or for the hike itself. For the markets, this is way too much information to absorb in a short period of time and in our view, it will probably be the most volatile day of the year (Excluding January 15th where the SNB removed the peg of the CHF against the EUR).

As for easy-forex, there is no way any other company will be able to match our trading conditions on such a volatile day. We are the only company with fixed spread, no slippage and guaranteed stops, and we tend to keep it that way at times of volatility because that is when our traders need it the most. Trade safe, and get ready for a wild ride.

Trading quote of the day:

“A lot of people get so enmeshed in the markets that they lose their perspective. Working longer does not necessarily equate with working smarter. In fact, sometimes is the other way around.”