walmart stock is a screaming bargain

123RF

Walmart (NYSE:WMT)  has decided to forego profits for a while and try to fix the business. Probably a good excuse for some to ditch it, although that might be overdone.

But fascination over WalMart’s 10% fall on Oct 14, which extended into yesterday’s trading when it traded below $60, did not have to extend into the rest of the retail sector. People are still buying things. The U.S. consumer is, by all reports, fairly flush at the moment.

So please explain why Target (NYSE:TGT) dropped 3.5% during the day (Oct 14), why Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) dropped 3.3%, why Kroger (NYSE:KR) lost 2.9%, and why even Costco (NASDAQ:COST) lost 1.6% of its value, or almost $1 billion. If WalMart is indeed circling the drain, these are the kind of companies that should benefit.

The fact is, WalMart is not circling the drain. While it no longer expects to turn a profit before 2018, as it starts paying employees a decent wage and seeks to integrate its stores into its e-commerce efforts, it’s also expecting to grow. CEO Doug McMillon’s projections are for sales to keep growing $15 billion/year during this period, which would put 2017 at $530 billion. That’s faster, in absolute terms, than Costco sales are growing. It’s faster, in absolute terms, than Kroger sales are growing. In strictly dollar terms, its sales are growing about as fast as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is growing.

The WalMart panic, in short, is grossly overdone. At $60/share Walmart is valued at $192 billion. That’s about 40% of last year’s sales of $485 billion. This, for a company whose operating cash flow in its last “disastrous” fiscal year came to $30 billion.

By contrast, Target shareholders are paying 67 cents for each dollar of sales. Costco shareholders are paying roughly 60 cents for each dollar of sales. DollarTree shareholders are paying $1.75 in equity for each dollar of shares.

WalMart, by conventional measures, is a screaming bargain.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email