Weighing The Week Ahead: Will An Earnings Surge Revive The Stock Rally?

Are you ready for some real news? How about corporate earnings? While there is some economic data on tap, the Q1 earnings season starts in earnest this week. With questions about economic strength, the dollar and the Fed in mind, pundits will be looking for fresh data. They will be asking:

Can resurgent corporate earnings revive the stock rally?

Last Week

Last week the news was heavy but generally neutral. Strong economic data caused celebration. The Fed minutes and concerns about tax reform were the biggest negatives.

Theme Recap

In my last WTWA I predicted special attention to the Trump-Xi meeting. That was a good call, with plenty of discussion all week. The talks did not yield much news, but there might be a lesson from that as well.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review by looking at a weekly chart. While there was not much of an overall change this week, Wednesday was the exception. Stocks moved sharply higher after the ADP number and sold off sharply in the afternoon, perhaps because of reaction to the Fed minutes, perhaps because of tax reform prospects.

The News

Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an “ugly” and on rare occasion something very positive. My working definition of “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too.

This week’s news was neutral.

The Good

Construction spending rose 0.8%. Steven Hansen (GEI) is not convinced.

Rail traffic in March increased 7.3% (AAR).

ISM manufacturing maintained recent strength at 57.2. Scott Grannis offers this chart.

ADP private employment registered a change of 263K, handily beating expectations.

Weekly jobless claims dropped to 234K

The Bad

Tax reform prospects seemed to get worse – at least that was the market take on Speaker Ryan’s press conference.

The Fed may be reducing its balance sheet. (Reuters). Fed expert Tim Duy thinks that balance sheet reduction will be gradual.

Auto sales were surprisingly weak. Calculated Risk concludes:

This isn’t a huge concern – most likely vehicle sales will move sideways at near record levels. But the economic boost from increasing auto sales is probably over.

ISM services dropped to 55.2. This is still a strong level, of course, but any dip from a peak is drawing attention.

Non-farm payrolls registered a net increase of 98K, well below expectations. Doug Short has a nice chart pack, including this rolling average interpretation of non-farm payrolls.

The Ugly

Rising global threats including Syrian gas attacks, North Korean challenges, and more terrorist attacks.

The Silver Bullet

I occasionally give the Silver Bullet award to someone who takes up an unpopular or thankless cause, doing the real work to demonstrate the facts. No award this week, but nominations are always welcome. There are many bogus claims and charts out there!

The Week Ahead

We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance, good luck with that. Second best is planning what to look for and how to react. That is the purpose of considering possible themes for the week ahead. You can make your own predictions in the comments.

The Calendar

We have a normal week for economic data, including releases on Friday when financial markets are closed.

The “A” List

Michigan Sentiment (T). Continued high readings and debate over “soft” data.

Retail sales (F). Will negative consumer news be confirmed?

Initial jobless claims (Th). Is the series edging up from record low levels?

The “B” List

JOLTS (T). February data. This is about labor market structure, not job growth!

PPI (Th). Still tame, with more of the same expected.

CPI (F). See PPI. The core increase is starting to approach the Fed’s target level.

Business inventories (F). Not much expected from this February data.

Crude inventories (W). Recently showing even more impact on oil prices. Rightly or wrongly, that spills over to stocks.