DailyFX Table

GBP/USD Table

GBP/USD breaks out of the narrow range from earlier this week as the Bank of England (BoE) raises its growth forecast for the U.K., with the pair at risk of staging a more meaningful advance over the days ahead as the central bank adopts a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy.

After voting unanimously to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) warns that ‘were the economy to evolve broadly in line with the February Inflation Report projections, monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period than anticipated at the time of the November Report, in order to return inflation sustainably to the target.’

The comments suggest Governor Mark Carney and Co. will stay on course to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months as ‘inflation is projected to fall back gradually over the forecast but remain above the 2% target in the second and third years of the MPC’s central projection,’ and BoE officials may increase their efforts to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as ‘a steady absorption of slack has reduced the degree to which it was appropriate for the MPC to accommodate an extended period of inflation above the target.’

With that said, the reaction to the BoE rate decision brings the topside targets back on the radar for GBP/USD, and the pair may make another attempt to test the 2018-high (1.4346) as it continues to track the upward trend carried over from late last year.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

  • Near-term outlook for GBP/USD has perked up following the string of failed attempts to close below the 1.3830 (61.8% retracement) to 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) region.
  • A close above 1.4100 (100% expansion) raising the risk for another run at the 1.4310 (61.8% expansion) to 1.4350 (78.6% retracement) hurdle, which largely lines up with the 2017-high (1.4346).
  • Keep in mind, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bearish formation carried over from the previous month; need a break of trendline resistance to favor a further appreciation in GBP/USD.
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