Retail sales were slightly up according to US Census headline data. The unadjusted rolling averages rate of growth was unchanged.

Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales

There was modest upward adjustment of last month’s data. This was a relatively strong report.

Things to consider when viewing this data:

it is not inflation adjusted.

the three-month rolling averages of the unadjusted data was unchanged.

still, our analysis says this months’ year-over-year growth was above average for the growth seen since the Great Recession.

The year-over-year growth rate in inflation-adjusted retail sales and retail employment have diverged.

 

Backward data revisions were upward.

Econintersect Analysis:

unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 0.2 % month-over-month, and up6.9 % year-over-year.

unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth unchanged month-over-month, up 6.5 % year-over-year.

unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 4.2 % year-over-year

this is an advance report. Please see caveats below-showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.

in the seasonally adjusted data – the major strengths were department stores and restaurants/bars.

U.S. Census Headlines:

seasonally adjusted sales up 0.1 % month-over-month, up 6.6 % year-over-year.

the market was expecting (from Nasdaq / Econoday):

seasonally adjusted Consensus Range Consensus Actual Retail Sales – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.6 % +0.4 % +0.1 % Retail Sales less autos – M/M change 0.3 % to 0.7 % +0.5 % +0.3 % Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change 0.3 % to 0.5 % +0.4 % +0.2 % Control Group – M/M change 0.4 % to 0.4 % +0.4 % +0.1 %

Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)