Jobs +201,000 Vs Employment -423,000: Another BLS Divergence

Nonfarm jobs rose but actual employment fell in two different measures of the BLS July jobs report.

Initial Reaction

Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 201,000. Revisions were negative.

The household report posted much weaker results than the establishment survey. The number employed fell by 423,000.

The unemployment rate, a household survey measure, was flat as the labor force declined by 469,000.

Nonfarm wage growth was +0.4%, the strongest aspect of the report.

Job Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +248,000 to +208,000, and the change for July was revised down from +157,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 50,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 185,000 per month over the last 3 months.

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +201,000 – Establishment Survey

Employment: -423,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: -46,000 – Household Survey

Involuntary Part-Time Work: -188,000 – Household Survey

Voluntary Part-Time Work: +249,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: flat at 3.9% – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 7.4% – Household Survey

Civilian Non-institutional Population: +223,000

Civilian Labor Force: -469,000 – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: +692,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: -0.2 to 62.7– Household Survey

Employment Report Statement

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail trade lost jobs.