Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM18 +0.19%) this morning are up +0.21% and European stocks are up +0.31% at a 1-1/2 week high on optimism in the global economic outlook after the OECD raised its global 2018 GDP estimate to a 7-year high of 3.9% from a Nov estimate of 3.7%. Trading activity was muted ahead of the release of U.S. Feb CPI later this morning, which may affect the outlook for Fed policy tightening. European stocks also received a boost on reduced interest rate concerns after the 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-week low of 0.618%. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.66%, Hong Kong +0.02%, China -0.49%, Taiwan +0.85%, Australia -0.38%, Singapore +0.38%, South Korea +0.71%, India -0.18%. Japanese stocks closed higher, led by gains in exporters, after USD/JPY (^USDJPY) climbed to a 1-week high, which boosted the earnings prospects of exporters with the weaker yen.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.17%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.78% at a 1-week high.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM18 unch) are down -1.5 ticks.

The OECD raised its global 2018 GDP forecast to 3.9% from a Nov estimate of 3.7%, the strongest in 7 years, but said “trade protectionism remains a key risk that would negatively affect confidence, investment, and jobs.”

Japan Feb PPI was unch m/m and +2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, with the unch m/m reading the slowest monthly pace of increase in 9 months.


Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb CPI (expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +2.1% y/y) and Feb CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y), (2) Treasury auctions $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Dick’s Sporting Goods (consensus $1.24), HD Supply Holdings (0.44).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.

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