Year-over-year import and export price inflation increased.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

The elephant in this month’s changes were fuel imports.

Import Oil prices were up 4.2 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were up 0.1 %.

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Year-over-Year Change – Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession – early 1990?s, late 1990?s, and mid 2000?s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: Import prices advanced 0.7 percent in November following rises of 0.1 percent in October and 0.8 percent in September. Higher fuel prices were the main contributor to the overall advance in import prices for November. The import price index increased 3.1 percent over the past 12 months. U.S. import prices have not recorded an over-the-year decline since a 0.2-percent drop in October 2016.

All Exports: The export price index rose 0.5 percent in November, after ticking up 0.1 percent in October and advancing 0.8 percent in September. In November, higher nonagricultural export prices offset lower prices for agricultural exports. U.S. export prices advanced 3.1 percent over the past 12 months and have not recorded an over-the-year decrease since the index fell 0.2 percent in November 2016.