2015 has been an ‘odd’ year. Typically this time of year sees demand picking up amid holiday inventory stacking and measures of global trade such as The Baltic Dry Index rise from mid-summer to Thanksgiving. This year, it has not. In
November 6, 2015
Should you buy stocks or not? Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a wonderful invention. Sure, they provide low-cost, tax-efficient alternatives to other types of collective investments but they are also easily observable indicators of market sentiment. If you look at a
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There
Cries for Going Totally Crazy are Intensifying What are the basic requirements for becoming the chief economist of the IMF? Judging from what we have seen so far, the person concerned has to be a died-in-the-wool statist and fully agree
The year has been terrible for mortgage REITs that provide real estate financing through the purchase of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”). Volatile markets triggered by global growth worries and a stronger dollar weighed on the results of these REITs.
Last week, I read a disturbing article on the state of retirement savings. Kate Davidson’s Wall Street Journal piece was based on a recent survey conducted by BlackRock. The survey revealed some bleak statistics about “pre-retirees” in the U.S. (age 55-64). Average retirement savings: $136,000 Expected
Following today’s jobs report the odds of a December rate hike approached 70% and the US dollar index surged. December Rate Hike Odds According to CME Fedwatch Stats, and based on futures quotes, the odds of a December hike surged to
Over the past week my core measures of market quality, trend, and strength all rose significantly. Market trend and strength moved above zero which results in changes to the core portfolio allocations. Market quality is just barely below zero and
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – again declined and remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory – and now is in its
For one, eurodollar futures are “obliged” to take account of any threats from the FOMC even though, in the end, they might only be self-fulfilling. Because the Fed has very little actual ability to condition money markets, none of that is truly
