Americans will be headed to the polls to cast ballots in the midterm elections. Polling suggests that Democrats will return to power in the House of Representatives. Republicans are favored to hold on to the Senate. However, political polls have
November 5, 2018
By now even those living under a rock know that October was a brutal month for equities, and while the US briefly entered into a correction, it was global stocks – and especially emerging markets – the suffered the bulk
As usual, Paul Krugman starts out with a serious attempt at answers before detouring into his current profession. Dr. Krugman used to be an Economist, and a pretty good one too (for whatever that’s worth). Nowadays, he employs his New York
There’s a lot of chatter going around today about how “since World War 2, there has not been a down period for the S&P 500 in the twelve months following the mid-term elections”. That seemed a little incredible, so I decided
The declining job creation growth from 2015-2017 on a year over year basis caused fear because it implies the labor market cycle is nearing its end. However, those fears have been abated in 2018. The October report showed 250,000 jobs
One of the largest weekend heating demand expectation additions in recent memory shot the front of the natural gas futures curve far higher this morning, with the December contract gapping massively up last evening and settling up over 8.5% on
Note: We’ve updated the charts below based on monthly data through October. Here’s an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in
My bearish-on-bonds disposition has remain unaltered all year, and recent activity is pushing us toward what could be an important next step. Of course, the really big step is already done: that is, the break of the long-term uptrend. The next phase of this
After missing an October interest payment on $270 million in unsecured notes, America’s largest bridal-chain is making preparations to file bankruptcy if they can’t reach an out-of-court deal with creditors, according to Bloomberg, citing people with knowledge of the matter. At issue is
By now it’s plainly evident that interest rates are in an uptrend. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has ticked up 62 basis points over the last 12 months, a 22 percent ascent. That hurt a lot of unhedged
