Ether (ETH) price has been dealing with some strong headwinds and on Sept. 11, the price of the altcoin endured a critical test when it plunged to the $1,530 support level. In the days that followed, Ether managed to stage an impressive recovery, by surging by 6%. This resurgence may signal a pivotal moment, following a month that had seen ETH endure losses of 16%.
Even with the somewhat swift recovery, Ether’s price performance raises questions among investors about whether it has the potential to climb back to $1,850, and ETH derivatives and network activity might hold the key to this puzzle.
Scarce assets are poised to benefit from the inflationary pressure and the expansive monetary policies aimed at bridging the budget deficit. However, the cryptocurrency sector is grappling with its own set of challenges.
Regulatory uncertainty and high network fees limit investors’ appetite
There’s the looming possibility of Binance exchange facing indictment by the U.S. Department of Justice. Furthermore, Binance.US has found itself entangled in legal battles with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), leading to layoffs and top executives departing from the company.
Besides the regulatory hurdles faced by cryptocurrencies, the Ethereum network has witnessed a notable decline in its smart contract activity, which is at the core of its original purpose. The network still grapples with persistently high average fees, hovering above the $3 mark.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has acknowledged the need for Ethereum to become more accessible for everyday people to run nodes in order to maintain decentralization in the long term. However, Vitalik does not anticipate a viable solution to this challenge within the next decade. Consequently, investors have legitimate concerns about centralization, including the influence of services like Lido.
ETH futures and options show reduced interest from leverage longs
A look at derivatives metrics will better explain how Ether’s professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions. Ether monthly futures typically trade at a 5 to 10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.
One should look at the options markets to better gauge market sentiment, as the 25% delta skew can confirm whether professional traders are leaning bearish. In short, if traders expect a drop in Bitcoin’s price, the skew metric will rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically have a -7% skew.
On one hand, Ether has potential catalysts, including requests for a spot ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) and macroeconomic factors driven by inflationary pressure. However, the dwindling use of dApps and ongoing regulatory uncertainties create a fertile ground for FUD. This is likely to continue exerting downward pressure on Ether’s price, making a rally to $1,850 in the short to medium term appear unlikely.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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