Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins have been relatively quiet during the holiday period from Good Friday onward. This suggests that cryptocurrency traders are not initiating large bets during the period when the U.S. equities markets are closed. That could be because of the tight correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 and the uncertainty about the equity market’s performance in the next week.
While some analysts expect weakness in the near term, others believe that Bitcoin could be in a consolidation phase with a large portion of its upside in the four-year halving cycle yet to come. Josh Olszewicz, head of research at alternative asset management firm Valkyrie, said: “Interesting. Maybe we never got the blow-off top…because it hasn’t happened yet.”
Could Bitcoin and select altcoins start a directional move in the next few days? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may be showing early signs of a recovery.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on April 16, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. Usually, small range days are followed by a range expansion but it is difficult to predict the direction beforehand.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate a minor advantage to bears.
If the price turns down and breaks below $39,200, the selling could intensify. The pair could then plummet to the support line of the channel. A break and close below this support could extend the decline to $32,917.
This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $39,200. The pair could then resume its correction and drop to the strong support at $37,000.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) rebounded sharply off the strong support at $0.69, indicating strong demand at lower levels. The bulls pushed the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.78) on April 15 but could not continue the up-move. However, a minor positive is that the bulls are attempting to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.77).
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. The sellers will then attempt to pull the pair to the strong support at $0.69.
If the buyers drive the price above the 200-SMA, the bullish momentum could pick up. The pair could then rally to $0.85 where the bears may erect a stiff barrier. On the downside, a break and close below the 20-EMA could invalidate the bullish view in the short term and sink the pair to the 50-SMA.
LINK/USDT
Chainlink (LINK) rose above the downtrend line on March 30 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. Strong selling near $18 pulled the price back below the downtrend line but a minor positive is that the buyers purchased the dip near $13.50 and are attempting to form a higher low.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA the bears will attempt to pull the pair to the critical support at $12.50. A break and close below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
If the price sustains above the 20-EMA, the pair could rally to $16 where the bears may again pose a strong challenge. The bullish momentum could pick up if buyers overcome this barrier.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA, it will suggest strong selling at higher levels. The bears will then attempt to pull the pair below $13.50.
Related: AMC Theatres mobile app accepts Dogecoin, Shiba Inu and more
BCH/USDT
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been trying to form a bottom for the past several days. The price rose sharply on April 13 and broke above the 20-day EMA ($339). Although the bulls could not build upon the up-move, a positive sign is that they have not allowed the price to dip below the 50-day SMA ($329).
The bears are likely to defend this level with vigor. If the price turns down from $395, the range-bound action may extend for a few more days.
If the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA, the bears will attempt to pull the pair down to the strong support at $259.
The rising 20-EMA and the RSI in the positive zone indicate advantage to buyers. If the price breaks above $354, the up-move may reach $380 and then $395.
FIL/USDT
Filecoin (FIL) has been range-bound in a downtrend. The bulls are attempting to form a basing pattern and the price has been consolidating between $16.50 and $27 for the past few days.
If bulls sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a rally to the overhead resistance at $27 increases. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above this level to signal the start of a possible new uptrend.
This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price breaks below the 50-day SMA. The bears will then try to sink the FIL/USDT pair to the strong support at $16.50. A break and close below this level will indicate the resumption of the downtrend.
The 20-EMA and the 50-SMA are completing a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating advantage to buyers. This positive view may invalidate in the short term if the pair turns down and breaks below the 200-SMA.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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