The economic mover and shaker this week is the Friday employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, probably the most publicized in the near term being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).

Today we have the November estimate of 208K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, which we can consider along with the estimate of 306K total new jobs from TrimTabs.

The ADP 208K estimate came in below the forecast of 223K for the ADP number.

The forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is 225K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number). The PAYEMS consensus is 230K new jobs, but their own estimate is for a higher 260K.

Here is an excerpt from today’s ADP report:

“November continued to show solid job growth above 200,000,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Small businesses continued to drive job gains adding almost half the total for the month.” 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Steady as she goes in the job market. Monthly job gains remain consistently over 200,000. At this pace the unemployment rate will drop by half a percentage point per annum. The tightening in the job market will soon prompt acceleration in wage growth.”

Here is the press release from TrimTabs:

TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 306,000 jobs in November, little changed from 314,000 jobs in October. 

“Hiring kicked into higher gear just in time for the holiday shopping season,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. “Job growth in the past two months was the highest since May 2010, when census-related hiring skewed the data.” 

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 141 million U.S. workers subject to withholding. 

In a research note, TrimTabs explained that its estimate of job growth is consistent with a range of other indicators. For example, income tax withholdings have been rising at a brisk pace, the employment indices of the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Surveys are historically high, and unemployment claims data has been quite favorable. 

“We’re more concerned about what lies ahead for the economy than about what’s happening now,” noted Santschi. “Our proprietary index of leading economic variables has been flat for the past four months. Also, the credit markets clearly do not share the exuberance of the U.S. equity market.”

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